Unemployment - July consensus updated
August 3rd, 2010Just checked the Marketwatch Economic Calendar and I see that the concensus forecast for July unemployment rate is now 9.6%, as opposed to the 9.5% consensus that was forecasted at the time I made my July unemployment rate prediction of 9.3%. So the consensus forecast has changed, but what number do I use when comparing my prediction accuracy against consensus - the more recent consensus prediction, or the one made at the time of my prediction.
Here’s what I decided. Once I publish my forecast (2-3 weeks before unemployment rate numbers are announced), I won’t change it since I have all the applicable polling data by that time, and won’t be getting any new information for my model. In the same posting as my forecast, I’ll record the consensus forecast, snapshot at that point in time. Since at that time, we all theoretically have access to the same information (ie nobody has future information), it makes sense to use the consensus forecast recorded at that time (for prediction accuracy comparisons), instead of using any future updates to the consensus forecast.
So I will use the 9.5% number for the July consensus forecast comparison, since that was the consensus at the time of my prediction, instead of the 9.6% which was recently updated, possibly due to more recent information.