Archive for the 'Unemployment' Category
(Lack of) Unemployment Prediction for August
September 1st, 2010Hi,
If you’re reading this, you probably know that the official unemployment numbers for August will be announced on Friday. For the past few months I’ve been using Gallup Poll data to input into a model, and make predictions prior to the official announcements; but not this month.
It turns out that I’m getting pretty close […]
Unemployment - July consensus updated
August 3rd, 2010Just checked the Marketwatch Economic Calendar and I see that the concensus forecast for July unemployment rate is now 9.6%, as opposed to the 9.5% consensus that was forecasted at the time I made my July unemployment rate prediction of 9.3%. So the consensus forecast has changed, but what number do I use when comparing my prediction […]
Unemployment Prediction for July
July 24th, 2010Right to it - my July unemployment rate prediction (seasonally adjusted) is 9.3%, a drop of 0.2% from the previous month. The published Market Watch consensus estimate is 9.5%. Another interesting month since my prediction differs from consensus - so we’ll see.
Below is a graph that puts this into the unemployment trend context. […]
Unemployment Prediction for June
June 25th, 2010Well, it’s about that time again, so here’s my unemployment prediction for June. Actually, all the data for the prediction was in a week and a half ago, but my 3 year old decided he’d keep me busy instead - ok with me!
By the way, for each monthly prediction I plan to compare against […]
Unemployment - Improving?
May 18th, 2010OK, month after month after month we hear “the recovery is on it’s way; stocks look GRRRREat!; but oh that unemployment…” And month after month we hold our breath in hopes that unemployment is improving - even if it’s a little. It’s almost like the last missing link to recovery.
So I thought it would […]